Decisions Decisions

Title: How We Decide
Author: Jonah Lehrer
Genre: Psychology

Ever get that feeling "I really don't know what to do"? How about that feeling "I know exactly what to do"? Decision making is such an integral part of everyday life, from working to time management. But have you ever wondered what lies behind it all? How does your cerebral cortex decide what you want?

I was recommended this book through someone's blog and though I'm not finished reading it yet, I think it's something everyone should take a look at. It goes through all the different types of decision making and why they exist.

In the book, a resounding study showed that when people shop at IKEA, people who "just pick" the couch they want end up being more satisfied with it. Those who spend hours contemplating all the features of each couch end up buying one that "fits" what they want, but they end up being relatively unsatisfied with the purchase.

The book continues by talking about how elite quarterbacks find the open man in a split second when in reality, it would take several seconds to decide where to throw. In the NFL combine, QBs are required to take an intelligence test, processing mathematical equations and hypothetical situations. At the end you are given a score and scouts look at this score to determine whether or not you are going to be good. What's interesting is that many of the top QBs never had high scores and a lot of players with high scores (i.e. Ryan Leaf) never even made a splash in the league. The argument of course is that there is something innate about being a QB, something that can't be quantified in numbers. Some can just "see" the play develop and find the open man.

The book also talks about poker players. It's a game surrounded by statistics and tendencies. There is almost always a mathematically correct play. But if you look at the greats - you seriously don't need to look past Ivey or Ungar - there is an argument to be made about the "feel" of the game. If you just think about it, how can a game revolving around cards and chips have a feel to it? It's hard to qualify, but there really is. Sometimes you just know what someone is going to do before they do it, you know what they're thinking and what they're trying to do. It's a psychological battle between you and your opponent.

Even moral decisions are covered in this book. The scenario:

You are the driver of a runaway trolley. The breaks have failed and if you do nothing the train will stay left and you will kill five workers who are fixing the track. However, if you steer the train right, you will swerve onto a track where there is only one maintenance worker. Do you do nothing and stay on track or do you steer right?

The study found that 95% of people said they would steer the train to the right. This makes sense because you are killing only one person as opposed to five. In fact, it could be argued that it's immoral not to steer the train right. Now a new scenario was given:

The same scenario exists as before but now instead of steering right, there is a big man on the footbridge of your trolley. If you push him off the trolley will kill him but it will also stop, thus allowing the five workers to live. Do you push him off?

As expected, people changed their minds, they would not push the man off. But what's changed? In both scenarios you are killing one person instead of five. The book divulges into the gray areas of moral distinction and decision making. This chapter was probably my favorite one in the entire book.

Other topics the book covers include having the "hot hand" in basketball. Does it really exist? People believe it all the time. How about decision making in war? If a target it coming towards you and you have no idea if it's friendly or not, what do you do? This book offers some great insight in decision making and it doesn't really tell you how you "should" think or make decisions, it just focuses on the "how".